Premier League clubs’ best and worst possible finishing positions in the table | Soccer News
Manchester City and Liverpool are locked in a two-way race for the Premier League title – but how far could your club finish this season?
Clubs have between two and five games left to seal their fate but 19 out of 20 clubs are still in contention for the title, qualification for the Champions League, Europa League or Europa Conference League, or to avoid a fall.
Data guru Ben Mayhew calculated each club’s possible range of positions in the final league and found only Norwich have nothing to play for but pride for the rest of this season.
chelsea, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United are all on the hunt to fight for the title Manchester City and Liverpool in the top 4 – with Spurs and United potentially slipping down to eighth place to miss out on Europe entirely next season.
Seventh place being the lowest position to potentially offer a European place, if permutations occur in all competitions, this means that all teams from fifth to 13th place AstonVilla retain the potential to qualify for Europe.
Norwich were relegated on Saturday after a 2-0 loss to Villa and results conspired against them elsewhere but, theoretically, every team sitting above the Canaries up to ninth place Brighton could end up in the drop zone.
watford have been largely written off in the race to survive, but the Hornets could still finish 16th, while attention for that final relegation spot focuses on Everton, Leeds and Burnley – but all three could still clinch a place in the first half.
What are the chances?
Mayhew also simulated all possible outcomes of the remaining matches and calculated the probabilities of each club’s possible finishing positions.
The results suggest Manchester City have a 69 per cent chance of retaining their Premier League crown, while liverpool have almost the same chances of finishing as second.
chelsea are nailed for third place at 93 percent, with Arsenal seed Tottenham in the Champions League final place at 74% – while Manchester United have a whopping 94% chance of finishing in their current sixth place.
How it works
The attacking and defensive strength of each club has been assessed using an expected goals model, which measures the quality of the chances they create and allow.
These ratings were then used to simulate the rest of the season 10,000 times to measure the likelihood of each club finishing at each league position.
Further down the table – between Brighton and Southampton – things become much less predictable, with fairly regular gaps between ninth and fifteenth.
Probabilities record watford in the championship but the pressure is mounting for the last place, with Leeds favorites to finish 18th (46%), followed by Everton (31%) and Burnley (23 percent).