Premier League predictions: Liverpool to win at Chelsea | Football news

Fresh off some midweek winners, Jones Knows is aiming for Premier League games this weekend …

Midweek winners for Jones Knows?

  • Leicester beats Liverpool at 13/2
  • Brighton +2 handicap & 10+ shots at 4/1
  • Chelsea draw 1-1 with Brighton 10/1
  • Lucas Moura shoots on target at 11/10
  • Crystal Palace wins to zero against Norwich at 5/4
  • Victories for Man City, Palace and West Ham

Live: SNF


Saturday January 1st 5:00 p.m.

Brentford vs Aston Villa, Sunday 2pm, live on Sky Sports – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Aston Villa has become one of the meanest defenses in the Premier League since Steven Gerrard took over.

This provides them with a fantastic base to work with to achieve positive results. Since Gerrard’s arrival in November, Villa have won four of their seven Premier League games with all three losses to Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City. In those four wins against Brighton, Crystal Palace, Norwich and Leicester, they have averaged an expected goals-against count of 0.7 per game and have faced an average of just 8.2 shots per game. Sure, it’s a small sample size but it’s a defensive record that puts them on par with Manchester City. The first signs are very positive for the future of Gerrard and his new club.

Meanwhile, Brentford are a solid home side that don’t offer their opponents many chances, as Manchester City discovered by creating just 1.04 expected goals against the Bees – the lowest total they have ever seen. they have posted on the road this season. To have played against City, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal at home this season and having the sixth best home goal expected against the exit is a serious achievement for a newly promoted side.

When you factor in both defenses, a low score case should be considered. Villa has maybe that little extra quality in the final third, so I took them to take away.

SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1

BETTING ANGLE: Aston Villa winner and under 2.5 goals (4/1 with Sky Bet)

Everton vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

I can’t have Brighton in this one at 11/8 with Sky Bet, especially if Dominic Calvert-Lewin is fit to play. He can make a difference when he comes back by bringing with him a 50% win rate when playing versus 21% when he’s away.

Brighton has no one of their cruelty or power in the final third which will continue to keep them from putting on consistent winning races. They have also won only one of their last 13 Premier League games, but have drawn nine.

Brighton were remarkably impressive at Stamford Bridge midweek but one area they struggled with was their inability to defend set pieces. This is probably due to the disappearance of Lewis Dunk. In their last five games, Brighton have dispatched 5.2 shots per game on set pieces, the third highest average of any Premier League side in that span.

With him still in the treatment room, Everton should be sure to derive great joy from those areas.

My eyes were drawn to 11/10 on Michael Keane having one or more shots on goal. Everton’s center-back poses a big threat as he ventures forward and has fired a shot in 12 of his 17 appearances this season.

SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1

BETTING ANGLE: Michael Keane will have 1+ shots (10/11 with Sky Bet)

Leeds vs Burnley, Sunday 2pm – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!

Bring your helmets. If you like your football rough, ready and full of fouls, then this is your street. The importance of this game will not be lost on both groups of players and the mood inside Elland Road is likely to ignite the tactile paper. Unlike other teams who could fall into relegation, Leeds fans seem ready to mingle with their squad. They are behind the manager and appear very united after a wave of injuries decimated their team, nothing more than Kalvin Phillips, who is expected to be out until March. A seismic blow for their hopes of climbing the standings.

Burnley will also arrive with three points in the lead. A win for them would draw Leeds straight into the mix. The match prices look about right to me, with Leeds being rightly favored at Evens and Burnley at 13/5. If you push me, I’ll play the draw and go hunting at the card market.

The reverse match at Turf Moor between these two produced seven cards and with the explosive atmosphere expected, referee Kevin Friend could have his hands full. Leeds tops the table for most yellow cards this season (50), but also shot the most opposition yellow cards in 2021 (88). Unsurprisingly, their matches this season have on average more cards than any other team. The game of producing over 50 contrarian reservation points should do the trick.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1

BETTING ANGLE: 50+ booking points (11/10 with Sky Bet)

Chelsea vs Liverpool, Sunday 4:30 p.m., live on Sky Sports

Chelsea v Liverpool
Picture:
Chelsea vs Liverpool, live on Sky Sports

I’m on an 11/8 away win for Liverpool with Sky Bet.

My tendency in these “monster” encounters between two teams capable of winning the title is to seek value so that the game is a low scoring tactical affair. Not this time. Even at this point in the season, the draws are of no use to the two in their pursuit of Manchester City. Three points or nothing must be the method of attack.

This game has the characteristics of a classic, involving a lot of action and penalty kicks – and based on what I’ve seen from Chelsea over the past few weeks, most of the attacks are going to be in their direction. .

Whether it’s fitness issues or just a general lack of confidence in the camp, they are miles away from their performance levels early in the season. The way Brighton cut his midfielder repeatedly on Wednesday allowed Jurgen Klopp to lick his lips, as did the lack of chances created by the Blues’ open play. Keep in mind that this is a Chelsea side who against Arsenal in the second week of the season created 18 open play opportunities in one game. Such is their current unease, they have created a total of 18 open play chances in their last three combined matches against Brighton, Aston Villa and Wolves.

Liverpool don’t have that problem. Yes they are heading to Stamford Bridge after a loss to Leicester but now is not the time to panic for them. The attacking process remains terrifyingly good, averaging just over 2.5 goals expected every 90 minutes in their last eight matches. Chelsea have kept only one clean sheet in their last eight Premier League games. It’s hard to see them improve that record against the Reds front line.

With the expected match scenario being one of high pace, with goals and draws not being good for either team, the match shots market is also worth a visit. Liverpool average 19.5 shots every 90 minutes this season and I would expect them to hit just below that number in this one as Chelsea are sending more shots to their goal than at the start of the season.

Brighton scored 18 in midweek, Leeds reached 12 and Watford 14. With Tuchel’s side unlikely to be allowed to sit by the home crowd they will fly forward and should be used as well. to ward off the shots. This makes the shooting lines with Sky Bet very appealing with 27+ (11/10), 29+ (15/8) and 31+ (3/1) worth it.

SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3

BETTING ANGLE: Liverpool win and over 28 shots in total (5/1 with Sky Bet)

Manchester United vs Wolves prediction to follow


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